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- President Donald Trump Found Guilty
Sentencing Scheduled for July 11
Judge Juan Merchan has scheduled Donald Trump's sentencing for July 11 at 10 a.m. ET. This follows a New York jury's decision finding the former president guilty of all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records after nearly 12 hours of deliberation over two days.
Trump’s conviction is unprecedented in U.S. history, marking him as the first former president to be found guilty of a felony and the first major-party presidential nominee to be convicted of a crime during an active campaign. If Trump wins the upcoming election, he will be the first sitting president to be a convicted felon.
The sentencing occurs just before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. While the judge has the discretion to impose up to 20 years in state prison, it is also possible that Trump could receive probation or a fine instead of prison time. The maximum penalty for each count is four years, but New York law limits total sentencing for this type of felony to 20 years, even if sentences are served consecutively.
Given the nonviolent nature of the charges and Trump's lack of a prior criminal record, the judge may opt for a more lenient sentence.
Political Implications of the Conviction
Trump's conviction brings a unique set of challenges and uncertainties to the political landscape. As the first U.S. president and major-party nominee to be convicted of a crime, his case lacks historical precedent. Jeffrey Engel, director of the Center for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University, notes, "There is nothing in the record that comes even close to this."
Despite his legal troubles, Trump has secured the Republican nomination and is in a tight race with President Joe Biden. Polls suggest that while some voters might reconsider their support due to the conviction, issues such as inflation, border security, and international competition might play a more significant role in the election outcome.
Voter Sentiment and Future Outlook
Surveys indicate that a portion of Trump's supporters might waver in light of his conviction. An April survey by Ipsos and ABC News found that 16% of Trump's backers would reconsider their support if he were convicted.
Trump's political resilience has defied many predictions over the years. His 2016 campaign and subsequent presidency were marked by scandals that would have derailed most politicians. Yet, his support base remained steadfast through two impeachments and the aftermath of the Capitol attack.
This conviction could be a turning point, particularly if Trump’s appeals fail and he faces imprisonment. Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University known for his accurate presidential predictions, acknowledges that Trump's conviction might be a significant, unforeseen twist in the political narrative.
The historic nature of Trump's conviction will undoubtedly be a focal point in the upcoming election. Whether it will prove to be a decisive factor or just another event in Trump's tumultuous political career remains to be seen. The ultimate judgment on its impact will come from the voters in November.